Conference Programme
Tuesday 29th April: Pre-conference courses (Murray Learning Centre)
| Course 1 - Room UG06 | An Introduction to Clinical Prediction Models and Sample Size Calculations for Model Development & Evaluation Faculty includes: Dr. Joie Ensor, Dr. Kym Snell, Dr. Lucinda Archer, Dr Rebecca Whittle, Dr. Amardeep Legha and Prof. Richard Riley from University of Birmingham | |
| 9:30 - 10:00 | Registration and Refreshments | |
| 10:00 | Start | |
| 17:00 | Finish | |
| 19:00 | Welcome Reception | |
| Course 2 -Room UG07 | Systematic Reviews of Prognosis Studies Faculty includes: Dr. Anneke Damen, Prof. Carl Moons from UMC Utrecht | |
| 9:30 - 10:00 | Registration and Refreshments | |
| 10:00 | Start | |
| 17:00 | Finish | |
| 19:00 | Welcome Reception | |
| Course 3 - Room UG09 | The Potential and Pitfalls of Predicting Treatment Effects Faculty includes: Prof. David M. Kent from Tufts Medical Center Dr. David Van Klaveren, Erasmus MC University Medical Center | |
| 12:30 - 13:00 | Registration and Refreshments | |
| 13:00 | Start | |
| 17:00 | Finish | |
| 19:00 | Welcome Reception | |
Wednesday 30th April
| 8:30 - 9:30 | Registration and Refreshment | |
| 9:30 - 9:40 | Welcome and Introduction | |
| 9:40 - 10:25 | Session 1: Methodology that stands the test Dr. Patrick Bossuyt, Professor of Clinical Epidemiology at the Amsterdam University Medical Centers Chaired by Richard Riley Assisted by Kym Snell | |
| 10:25 - 11:00 | Break | |
| Session 2: Methodology for models, tests and biomarkers | ||
| Tests Chaired by Jac Dinnes Assisted by Jon Deeks | Predictions Chaired by Lucinda Archer Assisted by Kym Snell | |
| 11:00 - 11:15 | QUADAS-3: updated tool to evaluate risk of bias and applicability concerns in diagnostic test accuracy studies Penny Whiting, University of Bristol | Performance evaluation of predictive AI models to support medical decisions: overview and guidance Ben Van Calster, KU Leuven |
| 11:15 - 11:30 | What is the evidence base for claims of accuracy for rapid self-test diagnostics sold in UK retail settings? Beth Hillier, University of Birmingham | A software implementation for sample size calculation targeting precise risk predictions Joie Ensor, University of Birmingham |
| 11:30 - 11:45 | Research Waste in Evidence Synthesis for Health Population Screening: A Systematic Review Sarah Batson, University of Warwick | Developing a clinical prediction model with a continuous outcome: sample size calculations to target precise predictions Rebecca Whittle, University of Birmingham |
| 11:45 - 12:00 | Bayesian statistical methods for diagnostic studies that allow early termination for futility Jordan Oakley, Newcastle University | Adapting sample size calculations for the development of prediction models to control for model stability Menelaos Pavlou, University College London |
| 12:00 - 12:15 | Opportunities to speed up in-vitro diagnostic adoption and patient access in the UK: the pre-eclampsia testing timeline Katie Scandrett, University of Birmingham | How to Handle Missing Data across the Development, Validation and Implementation of Clinical Prediction Models Glen Martin, University of Manchester |
| 12:15 - 13:15 | Lunch and Networking | |
| 13:15 - 13:55 | Session 3: Value of information analysis: towards a value-based approach in biomarker and prediction model research Dr. Mohsen Sadatsafav, Associate Professor and Associate Director of Research at the University of British Columbia’s Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences | |
| 13:55 - 14:05 | Break | |
| Session 4: Methodology for models, tests and biomarkers | ||
| Tests Chaired by Hans Reitsma Assisted by Katie Scandrett | Prediction Chaired by Carl Moons Assisted by Rebecca Whittle | |
| 14:05 - 14:20 | Simulation Study Examining Impact of Study Design Factors on Variability Measures Laura Quinn, University of Birmingham | Value-of-Information Analysis for External Validation of Risk Prediction Models in Multicenter Studies and Systematic Reviews Laure Wynants, Maastricht University |
| 14:20 - 14:35 | Real world implementation of the Biomarker Toolkit: a Tool aiming to quantifiably assess biomarker utility and guide development Katerina-Vanessa Savva, Imperial College London | Comparing Performance of Methods that Correct for Data Distribution Shift when Developing Clinical Prediction Models: A Simulation Study Haya Elayan, University of Manchester |
| 14:35 - 14:50 | Methodology to create evidence-based testing panels for monitoring long-term conditions in primary care Martha Elwenspoek, University of Bristol | Use of statistical process control to monitor calibration-in-the-large of a clinical prediction model David Jenkins, University of Manchester |
| 14:50 - 15:05 | Measurement Error: Unlocking Estimates of Test Variability From Routine Data. Methods for Statistical Analysis and a Case-Study Series Simon Baldwin, University of Birmingham | Combining calibration plots from multiple centers or datasets Lasai Barreñada, KU Leuven |
| 15:05 - 15:20 | Evaluation of diagnostic tests with spatially or temporally clustered data, part 1: The choice of estimands and estimators affects results and interpretation Nicole Rübsamen, University of Münster | Network meta-analysis of prediction models using aggregate or individual participant data - A scoping review and recommendations for reporting and conduct Maerziya Yusufujiang, UMC Utrecht |
| 15:20 - 16:15 | Break and Poster Viewings | |
| Session 5: Patient and Public Involvement & Engagement Chaired by Kym Snell Assisted by Joie Ensor | ||
| 16:15 - 16:30 The need for PPIE within methodology research Prof. Laura Gray, Biostatistics Research Group - University of Leicester 16:30 - 16:45 Experiences of a PPIE representative within methodology research Emily Lam, PPIE Representative 16:45 - 17:00 Establishing and working with PPIE panels from prediction model research: what we have learnt Dr. Paula Dhiman, Centre for Statistics in Medicine - University of Oxford 17:00 - 17:15 'PPIE meets statistics’: educating PPIE groups about prediction models and research methodology Dr. Pradeep Virdee, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences - University of Oxford | ||
| 17:15 - 17:30 | Open Discussion | |
| 17:30 | Close | |
| 19:00 | Conference Dinner | |
Thursday 1st May
| 8:30 - 9:00 | Registration and Refreshments | |
| 9:00 - 9:05 | Welcome to Day 2 | |
| Session 6: Are AI-enabled systems in healthcare fit for purpose? Toward equitable, fair and trustworthy systems for disease detection and risk prediction Prof. Alicja Rudnicka, Professor of Statistical Epidemiology in the Population Health Research Institute, City St Georges, University of London Chaired by Joie Ensor Assisted by Rebecca Whittle | ||
| 9:50 - 10:45 | Break and Poster Viewings | |
| Session 7: Methodology for models, tests and biomarkers | ||
| Tests Chaired by Rafael Perera Assisted by Beth Hillier | Prediction Chaired by Paula Dhiman Assisted by Lucinda Archer | |
| 10:45 - 11:00 | Evaluating Diagnostic Tests Against Composite Reference Standards: Quantifying and Adjusting for Bias Vera Hudak, University of Bristol | PROBAST+AI: An updated quality, risk of bias and applicability assessment tool for prediction models using regression or artificial intelligence methods Anneke Damen, UMC Utrecht |
| 11:00 - 11:15 | Improving the reference standard in diagnostic accuracy studies: Evaluating a latent class model against a panel of expert clinicians Tom Parry, University College London | Guidance for unbiased predictive information for healthcare decision-making and equity (GUIDE): considerations when race may be a prognostic factor David Kent, Tufts Medical Center |
| 11:15 - 11:30 | Examining the Association between Estimated Prevalence and Diagnostic Test Accuracy Using Directed Acyclic Graphs Yang Lu, McGill University | A simulation study investigating the impact of the prediction paradox on clinical prediction model performance Samantha Pacynko, University of Manchester |
| 11:30 - 11:45 | Diagnostic accuracy of tests for SARS-CoV-2 acute infection: Distinguishing measurands from target conditions Joanna Merckx, McGill University | CHARIOT: A prediction-under-intervention model for cardiovascular primary prevention Matthew Sperrin, University of Manchester |
| 11:45 - 12:00 | The estimand framework for diagnostic accuracy studies Antonia Zapf, University Medical Center Hamburg-eppendorf | Stronger penalties on treatment-covariate interactions improve treatment effect predictions and prevent potential treatment mistargeting David Van Klaveren, Erasmus MC |
| 12:00 - 12:15 | How do authors of comparative accuracy studies analyse data when reporting a comparative conclusion: methodological review? Yaxin Chen, Amsterdam UMC | Effects of Using Natural Language Processing for Cohort Selection from Electronic Health Records on Subsequent Prognostic Prediction Model Performance Isa Spiero, UMC Utrecht |
| 12:15 - 13:15 | Lunch and Networking | |
| 13:15 - 13:50 | Session 8 : Performance Evaluation of Diagnostics - Industry Challenges and Opportunities for Regulatory Science Prof. Mike Messenger Chaired by Clare Davenport Assisted by Katie Scandrett | |
| 13:50 - 14:00 | Break | |
| Session 9: Regulation of Tests and Models Chaired by Niels Peek Assisted by Simon Baldwin | ||
| 14:00 - 14:15 Identifying Priority Areas for Target Product Profile Development in Early Cancer Diagnostics Prof. Bethany Shinkins, University of Warwick/ NICE 14:15 - 14:30 Developing diagnostic target product profiles for managing infections and exacerbations in cystic fibrosis: a sequential mixed-methods design. Dr. Nicola Howe, Newcastle University 14:30 - 14:45 Lost in Translation: The Current and Future Regulatory Landscape as an Often-Overlooked Hurdle for Impact in Clinical Prediction Models Dr. Benjamin Perry, University of Birmingham 14:45 - 15:00 Assessment of Prediction Models in Europe: Gaps in Evidence Requirements Dr. Tuba Saygin Avsar, NICE | ||
| 15:00 - 15:40 | Break | |
| 15:40 - 16:40 | Session 10: Standing The Test For The Future Chaired by Richard Riley Assisted by Kym Snell Panel: Jon Deeks, Rishi Gupta, Anne de Hond, Chris Hyde, Mariska Leeflang, Sowmiya Moorthie | |
| 16:40 - 17:00 | Awards and Closing Remarks | |